THE LURKING TILT: CHRONICLE OF A SHORT STEEP AND PAINFUL DOWNSWING

Two month ago I signed up to a poker room where I have been playing low-medium buy-in heads-up.

Since one week ago I was doing fine, my bankroll was continuously growing until one bad day the fall suddenly began.

I was reveling in my wins and I was sure that it was going to continue. So why not to try medium-high buy-in heads-up?

Issue: I immediately suffered three consecutive defeats and lost 10% of my bankroll ! I tried not to pay too much attention to this, I was still self-confident and I blamed some bad luck.

Let now take a leap into the present: after less than one week later I have only 20% of my bankroll left ! What happened in the meanwhile ?

Let recall the prospect theory (see the post of 8th of April) and in particular “the value function” (figure 1).

Figure 1.

From point A that I hardly reached after two months, I came to point E in less than one I week. Here is the chronicle.

Point A) stable gain state: I win and my bankroll continuously grows (gaining has almost become an habit; an increment of the bankroll and occasional loss does not influence my mood) -> risk-aversion.

From point A to point B) end of the gain state: I have suffered a short series of losses, but I think that the reason is some bad luck (my emotional state is still indifferent to gain but it has become more sensitive to loss).

From point B to point C) unstable state: I have been continuing to lose and the alarm bell for the first time rings, but I am not totally aware of the reason behind my losses. What’s happening ?

a)      Has my way of playing been getting worse?

b)      Is it only bad luck?

I am in the region of maximum sensitivity of the value function (my emotional state is unstable: any win or loss can drastically change my mood).

From point C to point D: start of the loss state (I am indifferent to further losses, on the contrary a win can positively change my mood) -> risk-propensity.

From point D to point E: loss state (my emotional state is indifferent to both gain and loss).

Obviously my skill has been getting worse along the way without me being totally aware. Psychologically I am in a catch-22 situation: I have given the blame of my losses mainly to bad luck and I am too much in a hurry to compensate my losses. My style of playing is now loose-aggressive (that is a profitable style only if it is used for few consecutive hands and with some kind of opponents) and deceiving me is an easy job for my opponents: they can make me raise the pot when my hand is weak while theirs is strong or very strong.

To be continued...