ROLLERCOASTER

The lyrics of the some years ago summertime song are:

“We found love, oh

So don't fight it

Life is a Rollercoaster

Just gotta ride it”

It fits like a glove poker on-line, if we change “love” with “money” and “life” with “poker”. Therefore we should not be scared of a very steep downswing that sooner or later we will meet. The skill of managing the periods of tilt makes literally the difference between a winner and a loser.

Here is my bankroll graph as far as the first two months of playing are concerned (figure 1). I have been playing medium-low buy-in heads up games, except in the short but very painful period of tilt when I played medium-high buy-in or even high buy-in heads up (a very big mistake when you are in a period of tilt, you should decrease the buy-in instead).

Figure 1.

We can discriminate four different periods:

·         warming up (A-> B): moderate gain

·         hot (B->C): high gain

·         tilt (C->D): rapid fall

·         regular (D->?): average gain

Warming up: I have just signed up the poker room, I have got acquainted with the software and the style of playing of the opponents; a small loss or even, if everything is right, a moderate gain is normal in these cases (ROI=5.57%).

Hot: warming up has ended and a particularly happy period has started; the rise is considerable, like a pro player (ROI=35.26%).

Tilt: I am going to lose almost all the bankroll in a few time before recollecting myself (ROI=-19.86 %; actually I have never suffered an absolute loss thanks to the rake-back of the poker room bonus that has not been considered in the graph).

Regular: the tilt period has come to the end and the bankroll has restarted to sensibly grow (ROI=14,10%).

In the following table there are some significant statistics of the four periods and of the overall period of 74 days:

Table 1. d=days; g=games; ROI=Return On Investment. 

In the table it can be noted a inverse proportion relationship between the average number of daily games (g/d) and the ROI. The general rule is the less you play, the better you play. In particular in the hot period I played less than half the games I am playing in the regular phase, while in the tilt period I played double. Furthermore when you are in a tilt period you play more than usual because you want to recoup your costs; the result is awful because of that too ! It is also typical that a hot period is followed by a tilt period: at the end of the hot period you are inclined to overestimate your skill and you are more psychologically exposed to a disappointing result that sooner or later will inevitably come.

After this first experience, I have stated the following strategy for the next months:

• playing medium-low heads up
• playing on average eight games a day
• avoid tilt
• maintain a ROI of 10% or better

Who knows, maybe the rollercoaster will become small hillocks….